By Bruce L. Gardner and Gordon C. Rausser (Eds.)
This primary quantity of the ''Handbook of Agricultural Economics'' offers paintings on issues critical to the economics of agriculture: the quantitative illustration of know-how; marketplace expectancies; loved ones construction behaviour; client behaviour with doubtful caliber and security of products; and problems with imperfect festival in meals advertising. quantity IB offers with the economics of agricultural items when they go away the farm. Seven chapters clarify fresh advancements in program of twin ways in family economies, the economic association of foodstuff advertising and marketing, advertising margins among farm and retail costs, spatial rate research, commodity garage and value stabilization, commodity futures and recommendations markets, and the economics of meals protection. Volumes IA and IB each one keep on with their really expert chapters with a synthesis bankruptcy that brings jointly and assesses the most topics and problems with the sector, and quantity IB concludes with an total synthesis of the nation of and clients for agricultural economics as utilized monetary technology
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30,000 Hedging imbalance, longs-shorts (alldelivery months) . ')'Ira • m.. 00o mlm • ,J Price change of 2nd position -50 over subsequent month (cents per pound) Figure 4. Relationshipbetweencoffee hedging imbalanceand price changes, monthly, 1989-1999. The style and typical results of these tests for an effect from hedging pressure can be seen for coffee in Figure 4. In this scatter diagram, the first-of-month net position of large commercials (the net of the series in Figure 2(b)) is related to the change in the price of the second futures position over that month, with adjustments for those months when a contract expires.
Neither Houthakker nor Rockwell considered the statistical significance of their results; neither result is very strong statistically. In a more statistically oriented and more recent study of five commodities, including coffee, Chatrath et al. (1997) found that the commitments of large commercials did not influence subsequent movements in futures prices. 24 Differences in the variances of the five delivery months might be another complication - the standard deviation for the ten December expirationsin Figure 3 is 60 percent of that for the ten July expirations.
Only if the supply of (net) speculative services is infinitely elastic at the price expected for the expiring futures will the hedging imbalance not result in a bias within the futures price before its expiration, or at least from a simple view of the balance in futures markets. Economistscan twistterminology,and in so doingsubtlychangethe predictions of a theory. Some economists have used "backwardation" to mean the supposed "bias" in futures prices. That switch in meaningleaves no expressionto describe the common situationof nearby prices exceeding those simultaneouslyquoted for later delivery months (not to mention that the word "bias" is a sufficient description).
Marketing, Distribution and Consumers by Bruce L. Gardner and Gordon C. Rausser (Eds.)