By Sam Cole
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Extra info for Global Models and the International Economic Order. A Paper for the United Nations Institute for Training and Research Project on the Future
Ii) Patterns of Expenditure and Consumption In the UN model, expenditure patterns are based on a "typical shopping basket". As the authors observe, regional data is limited. The consumption structures for the base year (1970) are based on cross country regressions for ten countries using price adjusted consumption data (103). Consumption coefficients for specific agricultural products were projected on the basis of estimates of the income elasticity of these products published by F AO (106). As their incomes rise the developing regions are expected to approach the economic structure characteristic of highly developed countries.
Answering the question of whether there are enough resources to allow the economic development of the seven billion people expected by the year 2000 to enable a reasonably high standard of living, the authors conclude that the answer must be a conditional one. "In order to guarantee 45 the availability of adequate resources in the future, policies must be adopted which will decrease resource use in the present" (76). In the model, by the year 2000, the price is shown to rise by approximately a factor of two.
With the exception of the Latin American model, patterns of consumer spending are largely calculated on the basis of regional per capita income. The assumed trend in the expenditure patterns of developing nations follows either the historical trends experienced in advanced countries or the trend indicated by analysis of cross-sectional global patterns of expenditure. Because of their assumptions these models make relatively little distinction between the patterns of growth of consumption in different regions.
Global Models and the International Economic Order. A Paper for the United Nations Institute for Training and Research Project on the Future by Sam Cole